Having started on 1 October 2013, the 2013/14 crop year is currently in swing until 30 September 2014.
Confirming the information reported in earlier issues of the newsletter, world olive oil production this season is expected to be much higher than in 2012/13 when output totalled 2 425 000 t.
Initially assessed at 3 098 000 t in November 2013, it is now estimated at a slightly lower level of 3 050 000 t according to the latest batch of figures received from some IOC member countries.
The 2013/14 estimates for the producing countries that belong to the European Union differ somewhat from the first forecasts. Spain expected to produce 1 536 000 t of olive oil, but according to the latest estimates it will produce 1 595 400 t, i.e. 58 800 t more than initially expected.
In October 2013 Greece forecast a steep decrease in production to a level of 230 000 t due to the severe drought that summer; however, the latest data point to an even lower tonnage of 157 500 t, some 200 000 t or 56 pc down on the previous season.
Greece’s production has averaged 318 400 t over the last four crop years. Italy expects no change in its production estimate of 450 000 t whereas the outlook for Portugal is for production to be higher than expected, reaching 85 000 t. Notably, Portugal’s production has been rising in recent years.
Elsewhere in the IOC member countries, production appears to be holding at the initial estimates except in Turkey where production is expected to total 130 000 t as opposed to 180 000 t, i.e. 50,000 t less than first estimated.
Table 1 shows average production in the last four crop years alongside the most recent estimate for 2013/14 and Chart 1 plots the trend of world production between 1958/59 and 2013/14.World olive oil production 2013/14 crop year - IOC Market Newsletter No 80,