World olive oil balances for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 crop years

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World consumption in 2015/16 is provisionally assessed at 2 945 500 t, which is a 1% increase on the season before. The EU-28 consumed 1 618 500 t of this, for an overall increase of 1% (+14 000 t).

The countries with the highest increases are Greece with 8% and Spain and Italy with 2% each, and the small producers (Cyprus, Croatia and Slovenia) which together post a 20% increase. Consumption in France however falls by 4%.

The consumption figure for the rest of IOC member countries increases by approximately 7%. The biggest increases are seen in Iran (33%), Algeria (25%), Egypt (20%), Tunisia (17%), Libya (16%), Lebanon (11%), Argentina (8%) and Jordan (4%).
Decreases are observed in Albania (-4%), Israel (-3%) and Turkey (-1%).

The remaining countries post similar consumption rates to the previous crop year. Among the non-IOC Members, notable increases are observed in China (16%), Canada (9%), Russia (3%), the United States and Australia (5% each). Consumption however declined by 25% in Brazil and by 8% in Japan.

Olive oil imports in 2015/16 totaled 822 500 t, while exports came in at 829 500 t.
According to the latest official estimates world olive oil production in 2016/17 is expected to fall by 14%, coming in at around 2 713 500 t. The aggregate output of IOC member countries is estimated at 2 519 000 t. EU producers are expected to account for 1 923 000 t of this tonnage, showing a 17% year-on-year decrease. The breakdown
shows production forecasts of 1 311 300 t for Spain (-6%), followed by Greece with 260 000 t (-19%); Italy with 243 000 t (-49%), and Portugal with 93 600 t (-14%). Smaller tonnages are forecast for the rest of EU producers. Elsewhere among the IOC membership, olive oil production is forecast to be 7% lower than in 2015/16. Tunisia
would take the biggest hit with a production of 100 000 t (-29%), followed by Morocco with 110 000 t (-15%), Algeria with 74 000 t (-11%), Jordan with 23 000 t (-22%), Lebanon with 20 000 t (-13%), Argentina and Libya with 15 500 t (-18% and -14% respectively). The countries that are forecast to increase their output are Turkey with 177 000 t (+24%), Egypt with 27 000 t (+8%), Israel with 16 000 t (+7%) and Albania with 11 000 t (+5%). The remaining countries present smaller production volumes.

World olive consumption for 2016/17 is forecast at 2 904 000 t, which would be
1% below the last crop year. Graph II illustrates the world consumption trends in
three groups of countries: European consumer countries, IOC member countries and non-IOC Members. Historical time series data (1990/91– 2015/16) for production, consumption, imports and exports of olive oil and table olives can be found at:
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Source: International Olive Council MARKET NEWSLETTER No 110 – November 2016

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