New data have been added during this week for the trade balance and the prices of the new olive year 2014/15. The situation has kept everybody in suspense. As this has happened before, the least we can wish for is to keep prudent and calm.
The news so far is:
The assessments of the objective market observers have reduced even more, compared to the previous estimations, the production, which in addition, faces quality problems caused by olive fly (Dacus oleae) attack. As a consequence the prices have increased up to levels that the trade and the industry have stopped buying. Only the olive producers and the millers sell directly to the consumers.
The prices seem to be “insane”. Yet we shouldn’t forget that we refer to PDO/PGI (Protected Designation of Origin/Geographical Indication) and biological products. These products have always been more expensive, even during the normal years, because they address to family consumption and they have a nice packaging up to 5 liters or means of packaging brought by the consumers.
The crucial point of the Italian market is expected in the middle of December. The trade and the industry will follow the contracts they have by covering the needs in raw materials from anywhere they can find them if they find logical prices (very few from Italy, a few from Spain, more from Greece, Turkey and a lot from Tunisia). Or if they can’t do that, they will stop their sales because they are not going to sell with losses at the intern retailing and the exports of the important standard brands when they cannot stand the prices above a certain limit.
The assessments remain the same and Tunisia, with a production that will be approximately 300.000 tons, will cover the needs of Italy as far as this is possible. It is probable that the limits of the importations from E.U. will be increased up to 46.000 tons with reduced customs or/and having their implementation earlier.