Olive oil world production estimates for 2013/14

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Global olive oil production is likely to total at least 3.2 million tons in 2013/14, according to a new, higher estimate from the International Olive Council.

Olive Oil

In IOC previous issue was announced that world production of olive oil would be higher in 2013/14 than the crop year before. Although IOC are still working with forecasts, this increase is becoming more tangible since the 2013/14 season, running from October 2013 to September 2014, is now in swing in most of the producing countries except those in the southern hemisphere, Argentina for instance, where the dates are different (April 2013–March 2014).

According to the data that have come into the IOC Executive Secretariat from the olive growing countries, world production in 2013/14 looks set to top 3 200 000 t. A closer look reveals higher output in the EU producing countries (2 300 000 t). Leading the way is Spain where good weather conditions herald more than 1 500 000 t, followed by Italy where the outlook is also for higher production (500 000 t). Greece, on the other hand, expects a sharp decline in production to 230 000 t due to the severe drought this summer. As for the other olive growing nations of the EU, production is tipped to be higher in Portugal (76 200 t) and to reach 5 600 t in Cyprus, 5 000 t in France and 4 000 t in Croatia, which recently joined the EU in July 2013.

The picture in the rest of the IOC member countries is for production in Turkey (180 000 t) to be lower than the season whereas Morocco expects it to be slightly higher (120 000 t). In contrast with 2012/13, Tunisia’s production looks poised to descend by almost 64% to 80 000 t. Estimates assess production at 62 000 t for Algeria, 30 000 t for Argentina and 25 000 t for Jordan, with smaller volumes for the rest of the countries. Notably, Uruguay joined the ranks of the IOC producing countries this crop year, having become a Member in July 2013. The outlook in the non- IOC producing countries is for output to be in the vicinity of 93 000 t.
Imports are assessed at around 770 000 t while exports are forecast to reach over 750 000 t. More than 70 pc of world exports will come from the European Union, chiefly Spain and Italy. World consumption is forecast to be similar to the season before, at just over 3 000 000 t.

Table olives

World production of table olives looks poised to be higher than in 2012/13, topping 2 500 000 t (+4%). Production in the EU countries as a whole is expected to be 700 000 t. Spain is again in lead position, with its production assessed at 513 100 t, up on the season before. In Greece, table olive output is expected to emulate olive oil production in that a sharp drop is forecast to 94 000 t (-41%). The tonnages for the rest of the EU countries are 74 000 t for Italy, 12 000 t for Portugal, around 3 000 t for Cyprus and 1 000 t for Croatia.

Among the rest of the IOC member countries, Turkey will top the ranking, with an estimated production of 430 000 t. Next comes Egypt (400 000 t), Syria (172 000 t), Algeria (168 500 t), Argentina (140 000 t), Morocco (100 000 t), Iran (82 000 t) and Albania (28 000 t). The figures for the rest of the countries are lower in volume. Non-IOC producing countries are expected to produce 220 000 t in all, with Peru in first place (80 000 t), followed by the United States (68 000 t) and Chile (34 000 t). The production of the rest of the countries is on a smaller scale.
As for consumption, the outlook is for it to top 2 585 000 t, so recording a small increase on the previous crop year (+3%).

IOC MARKET NEWSLETTER No 76 – October 2013

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