There is so much at stake in relation to what may happen in the coming months inside the international trade of olive oil that many would pay anything to have the crystal ball to predict the future. Analysis by Alvaro Olavarría Govantes, managing director of Oleoestepa for Mercaceiarta.
My view on the evolution of international olive oil trade and prices at origin in the coming months is summarized in one word: uncertainty. We have seen in numerous olive crops how evidence of the numbers has betrayed us and has given way inexplicably to the improbable, in one way or the other, regarding possible options.
We are going to shed some light and hold ideas that may lead to a plausible hypothesis about what might be the course of events in the coming months. First, I must say that our country, from the 2001/02 campaign, has often exceeded 1,000,000 tonnes of annual production. Until then, only the 97/98 campaign (1,091,000 t.) surpassed the magic number, being the average production over the last 14 years of 1,176,000 t. (similar to the average of the past 10 years that amounted to 1,183,000 t. and not far from the average of the last five years, of 1,245,000 t.). Therefore, the analysis should only compare data for the last 10 years, because that’s when the productive capacity experienced a big increase in Spain and beyond it will not bring any conclusion comparable to the current reality. Precisely because of the pressure of those campaigns exceeding 1,000,000 t. of olive oil, we began to export more than 600,000 tonnes for the first time in 2001/02.Olive Oil Stocks Analysis in the coming months,