Olive oil performance in 2016/17 and estimates for 2017/18

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Olive oil: estimates 2017/18
According to the official country data and the estimates of the IOC Executive Secretariat, world production in 2017/18 is estimated at around 2 854 000 t, which would be an increase of approximately 12% compared to the previous year. Consumption is expected at 2 889 000 t for a 5% year-on-year increase. Imports and
exports are expected to exceed 830 000 t respectively.

At this point in the year it is still too early to judge the accuracy of these estimates and the figures that the Council of Members will examine at the end of November will be more solid, unless exceptional weather conditions intervene. The IOC member countries as a whole estimate a production of 2 677 000 t, which would be 94% of the total worldwide for the 2017/18 crop year, and which would be a 14% year-on-year
increase.

The forecast for EU producing member countries indicates an output of 1 896 000 t with Spain in the lead with up to 1 150 000 t, 10% lower than the previous year, followed by Italy with 320 000 t (+75%), Greece with 300 000 t (+54%) and Portugal with 110 000 t (+58%). It should be noted that Portugal will achieve a crop year record on the back of the new plantations in 2003/04, predominantly in the Alentejo region, and which we referred to in Newsletter No. 114.

Output in other IOC member countries is forecast at 781 000 t, for a year-on-year increase of 176 000 t (+29%). Within this group of countries, Tunisia expects to harvest 220 000 t, which would be a 120% increase, followed by Turkey with a forecast 180 000 t (+2%), Morocco with 120 000 t (+9%), Algeria with 80 000 t (+27%), Argentina with 37 500 t (+74%), Jordan and Egypt with 25 000 t respectively, which in both cases would be a 25% increase, while output is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly in other member countries.

World consumption could reach 2 889 000 t, which would be a 5% increase compared to the previous crop year. Upcoming Newsletters will provide further information regarding the forecasts for this crop year.

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