Olive oil performance in 2014/15 and olive oil & table olive estimates for 2015/16

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Olive oil: provisional data for 2014/15
Representatives from the majority of the IOC member countries attended the latest meeting of the IOC Statistics Working Group held on 28 September. The figures reported here for 2014/15 take into account the data delivered by Members but are as yet provisional since the crop year has just ended.

The resultant snapshot shows a tonnage of 2 390 500 t for world production (27 pc lower than in 2013/14), 2 902 500 t for consumption, (−5 pc), 844 500 t for imports and 844 000 t for exports.

The membership of the IOC produced 97 pc or 2 313 000 t of this world total while EU countries as a whole accounted for 1 430 500 t of world output, thus seeing their share shrink by 42 pc.

Ranked by order of EU production, Spain comes first with 837 600 t (−53 pc), then Greece with 300 000 t (+127 pc), Italy with 222 000 t (−52 pc) and Portugal with 61 000 t (−33 pc).

The aggregate output of the remainder of the IOC member countries is assessed at 882 500 t. This group is led by Tunisia, which produced a record 295 000 t (+321 pc versus 2013/14), followed by Turkey with 160 000 t (+19 pc), Morocco with 120 000 t (−7 pc), Syria with 105 000 t (−42 pc) and Algeria with 69 500 t (+58 pc).

The output of the rest of the IOC membership adds up to 133 000 t. Consumption in the IOC member countries totalled 2 214 500 t, equating with a decrease of 4 pc on 2013/14, while it hovered around 688 000 t in non-member countries, likewise down on season-before levels (−6 pc).

Olive oil: estimates for 2015/16
According to official data, world production in 2015/16 is expected to lie at around 2 900 000 t, about 22 pc higher than in 2014/15.

At this point in the crop year it is still too early to judge the accuracy of these estimates but by the time the IOC Council of Members meets at the end of this November, estimates will be more solid unless exceptional weather conditions occur subsequently.

The forecasts for the EU producing member countries of the IOC show that output could reach 1 200 000 t in Spain (+38 pc), 350 000 t in Italy (+58 pc), 320 000 t in Greece (+7 pc) and 92 000 t in Portugal (+51 pc).

Among the figures for the rest of the IOC membership, the data for Syria stand out. According to the forecasts of the Syrian authorities, domestic production is expected to amount to 215 000 t (+105 pc).

In the same group, production is estimated at 143 000 t for Turkey, 140 000 t for Tunisia, 130 000 t for Morocco and 73 500 t for Algeria. Olive oil production has seen a constant increase in recent years in Algeria where olive crop area has doubled in the last 15 years.

Between 2014 and 2015 alone, 20 000 ha of new orchards were planted at a density of 100–120 trees/ha, and the Government of Algeria has unveiled an ambitious scheme to increase olive crop area to 1 000 000 ha.

In the rest of the member countries, production is expected to amount to 159 500 t. As for world consumption, forecasts signal a 5 pc rise on 2014/15 levels (the Syrian authorities expect domestic consumption to be 35 pc higher).
2015-10-15_olive_oil_imports
Table olives: estimates for 2015/16
World table olive production for 2015/16 is forecast at 2 775 000 t. If this tonnage is confirmed, it would be a record figure, up by 13 pc or 320 000 t on the season before.

This increase is driven by the good harvests expected in IOC member countries like Spain (532 000 t), Egypt (470 000 t), Turkey (397 000 t), Algeria (234 000 t), Syria (180 000 t), Morocco (120 000 t), Argentina (120 000 t) and Iran (89 000 t).

Harvests are likewise expected to be good, although smaller in volume, in the rest of the IOC membership. At EU level, forecasts put table olive production at 814 000 t, down by 2 pc on 2014/15.

As already mentioned, Spain leads the way with 532 000 t, followed by Greece (210 000 t), Italy (50 000 t) and Portugal (17 500 t). World consumption is estimated at 2 628 000 t, representing an increase of 81 500 t or 3 pc compared with 2014/15.

It is interesting to note that world consumption of table olives has increased constantly over the last three crop years, recording annual growth of 3 pc.
2015-10-15_table_olives_import

Source: International Olive Council MARKET NEWSLETTER No 97 – September 2015

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