The forecast for the next olive oil campaign are positive for Italy and Spain

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All the Iberian Peninsula will back to more usual levels of production. Good outlook also for Italia, in particular in Centre and North. The quotation will degree in coming weeks, also if the stock level is the lowest fro many years

Back in smile Italy. After a rather disappointing oil campaign last year, especially in the central regions, the next oil campaign should be rich and plentiful, although there will be exceptions.
Overall, Italy is expected to produce 330/350 thousand tons of olive oil with the South..
It will in particular Puglia to shine with a production estimated at 180 000 tonnes, of which the majority concentrated in the north of the region: Bari and Gargano. In difficulties, climate and plant disease problems, Salento and in particular the Brindisi.
In Calabria, after an excellent performance last year, the outlook is less positive. The production should be around the 80 thousand tons.

Situation much more difficult to estimate in Sicily where we denote an output similar to last year but with some areas with low production as the Monti iblei and Messina.
Good forecast to the center north where, in almost all regions, production is expected to grow by at least 15-20 % compared to last year’s disastrous campaign. In sharp recovery will be especially Sardinia, with a production that should substantially exceed the 10 thousand tons, while Tuscany it hard not to exceed 15 thousand tons. To suffer a bit ‘ more Apennines and central areas because of heavy winter and spring rains that have given rise to substantial attacks peacock eye . It is not uncommon to come across olive groves bare. In coastal areas, conversely, to even worry about these days are the attacks of the olive fruit fly that were insistent and frequent since the middle of July.

Looking across the border we find that Spanish olive growers and millers are smiling. Spain is credited with a production 1.300.000 to 1.350.000 tons. In the great sweep especially Andalusia , which should recover production levels prior to those of the disastrous campaign in 2012/13 and return to exceed 700 thousand tons. Excellent production performance in Catalonia.
It is not only Spain to smile in the Iberian Peninsula but also Portugal, which will have a production of 70-80 thousand tons largely resulting from the entry into production of the new plants of Arbequina.

Many problems than in Greece, where the output should not exceed 180-200 thousand tons. In particular, it will be the island of Crete to disappoint the expectations, with a production that should not exceed 40.000 tons.

In extraordinary recovery, after the first data collected in July, Tunisia. Thanks to rains in recent weeks much of the crop is safe and should reach about 100 thousand tons. Drought in the south, where it produces more oil and virgin clear , the campaign will be low and the north will produce extra virgin olive oils of good quality.
Staying in North Africa , Morocco strordinaria not recorded a year with an estimated production of 80-90 thousand tons. On the contrary, the production of Tunisia should focus more abundant in the south while in the north the situation is certainly more difficult.

Also declining oil production in Turkey , with a production that should not exceed 140 thousand tons. To invalidate this finding, however, might be carrying illegal, but now in place, the Syrian oil brought by refugees from war and beyond. At the time the Turkish authorities seem to turn a blind eye view of the overall situation, of these trades, but with the new campaign, where Syria is credited with 90-100 thousand tons, the situation could change.

Stocks around the Mediterranean basin are the all-time low for many years now. In Spain there are more than 300 thousand tons while in Italy a few thousand concetrate mainly in Puglia and Calabria. Virtually no stocks in Greece while there remain a few thousand tons available in Tunisia, although not of very good quality .

We estimates a gradual decline in prices in the coming weeks, which could even reach 20% of the Spanish market. As a consequence, there would also declines in Italy and in Greece .

by Alberto Grimelli, Marcello Scoccia from teatronaturale

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