- World olive oil forecasts presented at IOC Economic Committee meeting held in Madrid, Spain, on 28 May 2013 World production saw the best crop year ever in 2011/12 when it reached 3 377 500 t, but in the current 2012/13 season it looks set to be 26 pc lower, dropping to a similar...
World olive oil forecasts presented at IOC Economic Committee meeting held in Madrid, Spain, on 28 May 2013
World production saw the best crop year ever in 2011/12 when it reached 3 377 500 t, but in the current 2012/13 season it looks set to be 26 pc lower, dropping to a similar level as in 2002/03. This drop in aggregate output is primarily due to a decrease of 1 006 600 t in Spain’s production, down by 62 pc from the season before. As a result, the production figure of the EU/27 countries taken as a whole is 919 500 t lower (-38%) although Greece shows an increase of 22 pc. Among the other member countries of the IOC, Tunisia stands out with a 22 pc rise in output in 2012/13. With a 30 pc increase in its level of production, Chile is noteworthy among the non-IOC member countries.
Estimated at 2 954 000 t, world consumption in 2012/13 is expected to be 5 pc lower than the previous crop year. The biggest drop is located chiefly in the EU countries, where the estimated aggregate decrease is 12 pc. Consumption looks poised to fall by 15 pc in the chief producing countries of the EU (Spain, Italy and Greece) and by 10 pc in Portugal. Turkey is the country where consumption increases the most among the IOC Members. Outside the IOC countries, the expected 4 pc increase in U.S. consumption by the end of the season is noteworthy.
Looking at the data available for 2012/13, world imports are expected to expand by 3 pc versus 2011/12 to reach 790 000 t. This level may be even higher, judging by the major importers’ data for the first six months of the season. Lower production in 2012/13 is forcing the EU countries, Spain particularly, to import from outside the EU. Imports by the United States account for 40 pc of total world imports in 2012/13 and already show 4 pc growth on the season before.
World olive oil exports hit an all-time high in 2011/12 when they reached 801 500 t, with Spain in the lead in terms of both intra- and extra-EU exports, but they are expected to go down by 1 pc (793 000 t) in 2012/13. Notably, IOC member countries account for 96 pc of world exports. As only to be expected due to its lower output, exports by Spain are expected to go down in 2012/13 from season-before levels.
End-of season stocks are estimated to be 45 pc lower.
Extra virgin olive oil: Prices in Spain started to climb sharply in late July 2012, reaching €2.64/kg by the third week of September. They then switched course in the second week of October, dropping until the second week of December when they reached €3.02/kg. They continued to oscillate around this level until the second week of March, at which point they started to descend again. They now lie at €2.74/kg, thus showing 54 pc growth on year-ago prices. In Italy, they rose from the low of €2.61/kg recorded in the last week of November to €3.25/kg in the last week of May 2013, at which point they dipped to €3.16/kg, where they held steady. This translates into 33 pc growth on the same period a season earlier (see Graph 1).
Prices in Greece did not experience a similar range of increase from July 2012 onwards, probably because of higher expected production. They went up from €2.04/kg to only €2.36/kg between the last week of December 2012 and the last week of May 2013, equating with a 28 pc rise. Prices in the three markets (Spain, Italy and Greece) decreased in recent weeks but seem to be steadying.
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- The United States docked two in every five tons of olive oil imported globally in the first six months of this season, according to the latest market newsletter from the International Olive Council. And the huge American market continues to swell – with total imports of olive...
The United States docked two in every five tons of olive oil imported globally in the first six months of this season, according to the latest market newsletter from the International Olive Council.
And the huge American market continues to swell – with total imports of olive oil and olive pomace oil for October 2012–March 2013 in line to rise four percent on last season.
The U.S. imported 33,208 tons in March alone, compared to 6,592 tons in Brazil – currently the world’s second biggest non-European olive oil buyer – where imports are up 16 percent, and 4,184 tons in Japan, where they’ve grown 29 percent.
The Chinese market, which unloaded 1,766 tons in March, is up 17 percent, and there’s been growth of five percent each in Canada and Russia but a five percent slump in Australia.
Overall, total world imports are expected to expand three percent on 2011/12 to reach at least 790,000 tons.
The IOC said that due mainly to the 62 percent collapse in Spain’s production, total world production this season is expected to be down a quarter on 2011/12’s record 3 .77 million tons, and the season to end with 45 percent less in stocks.
Production is up, however, in Chile, by 30 percent, and by 22 percent each in Greece and Tunisia.
World consumption of 2.95 million tons is forecast for 2012/13, five percent less than last season.
The European Union (E.U.) is headed for the biggest drop – an expected overall decline of 12 percent. Individually, consumption looks poised to fall 15 percent in the chief E.U. producing countries – Spain, Italy and Greece – and by 10 percent in Portugal, the IOC said.
“Turkey is the country where consumption increases the most among the IOC Members,” it said.
Midway through the 2012/13 crop year, table olive imports are up 13 percent in Canada, 11 percent in Russia, eight percent in Australia, seven percent in Brazil and one percent in the U.S.
IOC Market Newsletter May, 2013
By Julie Butler
Olive Oil Times Contributor | Reporting from BarcelonaVN:F [1.9.22_1171]VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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- High quality extra virgin olive oils are usually made from a blend of olive varieties in order to balance the flavour components with shelf life. Oil quantity and quality are highly dependent on the olive variety. The best oil varieties in the world have developed their reputation...
High quality extra virgin olive oils are usually made from a blend of olive varieties in order to balance the flavour components with shelf life. Oil quantity and quality are highly dependent on the olive variety. The best oil varieties in the world have developed their reputation over centuries of production for fruit yields, oil content, flavour, keeping quality, maturity date, and ease of harvest.
Most olive cultivars range in oil content from 10 to 35 percent of their fresh weight at full maturity. Growing olive varieties with an average oil yield of less than 20 percent ~ 45 gallons of oil per fresh ton of fruit are not usually profitable to use for oil. Of the majorolive varieties grown in California, Manzanillo, Mission, Sevillano, Ascolano, and Barouni, only Mission contains a high enough oil content to plant for oil. The quality of oil made from all of these olive varieties can be excellent, but is generally regarded as inferior because they are compared to specific oilvarieties with tradition, name recognition, and marketing perception. This is similar to recognized wine varietals in the world.
Flavour components within each cultivar come from the water-soluble flavenoids, phenols, polyphenols, tocopherols, and esters that make up the bitter flavor of fresh olives. These compounds are also naturally occurring antioxidants that extend oil shelf life by reducing rancidity.The most prominent oil varieties in the world are Piqual, Empeltre, Arbequina, Frantoio,Coratina, Aglandaou, Picholine, Leccino, Chemlali, and Koroneiki. Oils with high polyphenol content have longer shelf life and are generally more bitter and pungent. I would prefer to choose a lighter flavored oil according to the the variety and harvest time, such as a late harvest Arbequina rather than buy a refined oil.
Information source amazingoliveoilVN:F [1.9.22_1171]VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
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